Some might call this unimaginable, some might say it is challenging and some support the idea of achievable. But plan?s success lies in the process of execution.
Right now India is a $2.8 trillion economy, which is approximately 190 lakh crore in rupee terms. The prime minister of India, Narendra Modi, has set great plans, one of which is the huge target of $5 trillion economy. He said that the target is challenging but achievable.
The sole intention to reach this target should be the GDP of the country. India needs to grow at an annual average of 11.5% for the next five years. Modi should double the GDP of the country to climb the mountain of $5 trillion by 2024. The real GDP should grow in rupee terms at a rate of 7.5 % and the economy will be very near to the target.
Modi has set a wave of structural reforms for a generation as the basis for growth and development for the decade. Apart from the structural changes, growth, development, technology, etc, in all the sectors of the economy, perspectives should now shift from policies to projects. Actions do speak louder than words.
According to Modi, everyone has a common goal now, the New India by 2020. The Swachh Bharat Abhiyan and the PM Awaas Yojana is just a sketch of what the State and the Central government can accomplish together. The matter of empowerment and ease of living will be provided to every Indian. There is also stress on increasing exports from the country. Modi also mentioned that by 2025, tuberculosis will also be eliminated from the country.
The rupee-dollar exchange rate should be in check for the dream target. Rupee should not depreciate, otherwise, it will affect the GDP of the country in dollar terms and it will move the target further away. The IMF in April 2019 had cut India?s GDP growth for 2019-20 to 7.3% and 7.5% for 2020-21. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently lowered its GDP forecast for 2019-20 to 7% from 7.2% earlier.
How realistic is this target?
The target is gigantic to get a hold of,
When Modi was elected as Prime Minister in 2014, India was a $1.85 trillion economy. When his term ended in 2019, India is now a $2.8 economy. The economy should maintain growth of 8% annually to reach $5 trillion. Maintenance is all India needs, and to quote Modi, ?India was walking but the New India will be running.?
To reach the target, exports have to grow in double digits. Major changes are also required in land and labor laws apart from ensuring continuity in economic policies. Efforts and consistency should be the central drivers of all plans to touch $5 trillion. From being the 11th largest economy in 2013-14, India now stands as the 6th largest economy in the world. If the growth is consistent and the economy continues to grow at the same pace, India will be ranked 3rd behind the U.S. and China by 2030.
Bold moves define us.
Modi government carries out bold reforms and work at breakneck speed to achieve them. He is known for his bold moves like the demonetization in 2016. He astounds people and maybe with risk and luck he can achieve this target as well.
Unlikely or Luckily?
The big dream of doubling the economy in 5 years is not that huge if we look at the graphs, statistics, growth, development and technology from 2014 to 2019. But India is a large and dynamic economy.
Some of the States still remain under resourced and massively underpowered.
What if India achieves the target but struggles to maintain and retain the attitude and responsibility of a developing country?
How can the world deal with an economy with huge aggregate size and aspiration of assumed superpowers but the state and capabilities have remained relatively unchanged?
Modi needs to set his plans straight for this huge target. Challenging but achievable is challenging still. All the efforts and hard work will help India achieve this target or will India struggle for another decade?
Will Modi be the Prime Minister who helps India climb the Everest of $5 trillion?
Is it an imaginary long run target or a risky luck marathon? Or Will Modi is lucky yet again?
I guess we will be astounded by 2024.
By Yumna Fatima
Literary References- indiatoday.com, economictimes.com, businesstoday.in
