Impeachment is the process by which a legislative body levels charges against a government official. Impeachment does not in itself remove the official definitively from office; it is similar to an indictment in criminal law and thus it is essentially the statement of charges against the official. Whereas in some countries the individual is provisionally removed, in others they can remain in the office during the trial. Once an individual is impeached, they must then face the possibility of conviction on the charges by a legislative vote, which is separate from the impeachment but flows from it, and a judgment which convicts the official on the articles of impeachment entails the official’s definitive removal from office
In a historic vote, Donald Trump has officially become the third president, after Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton to be impeached in U.S. history. The U.S. House of Representatives voted in favor of two articles of impeachment: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
The results did not surprise anyone given a Democrats-controlled House. But still, it is a signature move in an increasingly white-hot partisan competition for power. Nancy Pelosi has only a few steps to go to get Trump out of the office: name a group of “impeachment managers” and transfer the case to the Senate. A trial is expected in January next year and a two-thirds majority is needed to remove Trump from Presidency officially.
We are most likely not going to see a surprising vote given the Republican’s 53-seat majority. So even if Pelosi announced she would put off the transfer of the case, for now, to make sure the trial procedures are fairer, it is highly unlikely that Trump would be impeached given Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s remarks that he would not be an “impartial juror” at all.
The Democrats must have done the math beforehand and knew that the chance was too small. Most likely, they still would like to see Trump’s approval rate dragged down, as more evidence is revealed, thus leaving more winning chances for the Democrats in the 2020 election. The Mueller investigation has already hit Trump’s approval and damaged his public image. The Democrat is hoping that the Ukrainegate scandal could give those swing voters a final push to change their minds.
But again, one must be careful not to fiddle with public opinion as it could easily backfire. What the Democrats have hoped to “kill” Trump might, in turn, makes him stronger politically. A CNN poll in December showed that support for impeaching Trump has reduced to 45 percent, down from 50 percent in mid-November. The country largely remained evenly split on the impeachment. The Gallup poll also showed that Trump’s approval rate has actually climbed up six percent from 39 percent to 45 percent since Pelosi formally opened an impeachment inquiry in September.
To be fair, Trump’s performance on the approval rating has been mostly negative. Still, these numbers have at least demonstrated that there is not much in the public opinion regarding the impeachment. The impeachment drama, which started the day after Trump’s presidency, may have prolonged to the point where most have lost interest. More importantly, the Democrats have chosen the wrong theme when crafting the plot.
It is not that the alleged accusation of Russian interference and Trump’s possible abuse power in Ukrainegate is not serious; it is just that to woo ordinary Americans, foreign affairs are never as attractive compared to domestic matters such as employment, wages and health care. And judging from the poll, at least the public does not think the matter is serious enough to get Trump out of the office.
In October, three full Congressional committees (Intelligence, Oversight, and Foreign Affairs) deposed witnesses including Ukraine ambassador Bill Taylor, Laura Cooper (the top Pentagon official overseeing Ukraine-related U.S. policy), and former White House official Fiona Hill. Witnesses testified that they believed that President Trump wanted Zelensky to publicly announce investigations into the Bidens and Burisma (a Ukrainian natural gas company on whose board Hunter Biden had served), and 2016 election interference. On October 8, in a letter from White House Counsel Pat Cipollone to House Speaker Pelosi, the White House officially responded that it would not cooperate with the investigation due to concerns including that there had not yet been a vote of the full House of Representatives and that interviews of witnesses were being conducted privately. On October 17, White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said, in response to a reporter’s allegation of quid pro quo: “We do that all the time with foreign policy. Get over it.” He walked back his comments later in the day, asserting that there had been “absolutely no quid pro quo” and that Trump had withheld military aid to Ukraine over concerns of the country’s corruption.
The Trump-Ukraine scandal began in September 2019 with the revelation that an intelligence officer had filed a whistleblower complaint to the intelligence community inspector general alleging wrongdoing on the part of Trump.
The whistleblower, who we now know was a member of the CIA and detailed to the National Security Council, claimed that a phone call in July 2019 between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky set off alarm bells in the intelligence community. He writes in the complaint: “The White House officials who told me this information were deeply disturbed by what had transpired in the phone call.”
The whistleblower had followed the procedure laid out in law for intelligence professionals who believe wrongdoing is taking place. Rather than leaking to the press, intelligence professionals are supposed to file a report with the inspector general. Under the Intelligence Community Whistleblower Protection Act, if the inspector general deems the complaint to be credible and the matter to be of “urgent concern,” he or she is supposed to forward it to the director of national intelligence, who then is required to forward the complaint to Congress within seven days.
What does it mean that Trump’s been impeached?
For the president, nothing happens (beyond a symbolic reprimand) if he or she is impeached. Impeachment by the House alone does not remove a president from office or do anything in particular to him. All House’s impeachment vote does is turn the matter over to the people who will really decide what happens — the members of the United States Senate.
What are the chances the Senate will vote to convict Trump?
It takes a two-thirds vote of the chamber (67 out of 100 senators) to convict an impeached president. That’s a far higher threshold than an ordinary vote and even the typical supermajority requirement in the Senate
What’s the line of succession?
If Trump is removed from office — or if he, like Nixon, resigns under pressure — the presidency falls to Vice President Mike Pence. Next in line would be House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, then-Senate President Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley.
By Manisha Vyas
Literary Sources- Wikipedia, CNN, BBC