The Year 2024 will be quite fascinating for U.S. Politics since the general elections will be held on November 5th, and there are nearly 11 months left for it. The battle between Democrats and Republicans has taken a new phase, with many twists and turns before the contest in the Iowa Caucasus. Iowa caucuses are meetings where people congregate to discuss and choose candidates for their registered party, in contrast to primary elections where registered voters cast ballots at polling stations on election day. Unlike most state-run primaries, the caucuses are held by political parties. Iowa employs caucuses for both presidential and midterm elections, although their importance primarily lies in the presidential nomination process. Trump’s victories in both the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire have rejuvenated hopes for the Republicans and Trump for his second term in the White House.
Currently, the Biden administration is under immense pressure both internally and externally. The surrender in Afghanistan, the war in Ukraine, and Israel have somewhat tarnished the image of the Biden administration. In the post-COVID era, the U.S. economy was hit hard, leading to a rise in inflation and unemployment, further escalated by the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. However, considering the crisis, the Biden administration has launched Bidenomics as a measure of damage control. The broad economic agenda, known as “Bidenomics,” focuses on expanding access to healthcare, raising taxes on the rich, investing heavily in infrastructure and renewable energy, and helping the middle class.
As part of Biden’s Build Back Better Plan, which contained $1.9 trillion in economic rescue funding tied to COVID-19, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 is one of the main legislative components trying to enact the principles of the Bidenomics platform. Individual direct stimulus payments, support for eviction and foreclosure moratoriums, funding for immunization and testing, and more were made available by the American Rescue Plan. However, over $34 trillion has been added to the national debt. It is realistic to assume that the debt will only rise as long as people are unwilling to make difficult decisions about bloated and perpetually expanding defense and entitlement programs. Given the stark political divide in the nation, it is hard to see how either administration will be able to create bipartisan policy towards China, Russia, Ukraine, the Gaza War, and the Persian Gulf/Red Sea.
This situation has allowed Donald Trump to reflect on his past tenure and come back stronger than before. The victory of Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire has somewhat amplified the confidence in Republicans and Donald Trump. However, this election is quite interesting after the arrival of Vivek Ramaswamy as a new face for Republicans, which initially troubled Trump. But in a big twist, the withdrawal of the name by Ramaswamy has poised Trump as the face of the Republican Party. The Republican support aims to see the Trump-Ramaswamy pair in the White House, which has also been popular among the American and Indian-origin population and could be an X factor for gaining popularity, later converted into votes.
Both Biden and Trump are vying for their second terms, with both the president and former president having smooth experiences in office. However, Donald Trump’s tenure has often been called the most controversial in the history of the U.S. The impeachment of the former president has always been a controversial topic for him. Even after his loss in the 2020 election, Trump’s denial towards his loss caused mass violence, hitting Capitol Hill. The former President Trump became the third president in history to be accused of serious crimes and misdemeanors and to face impeachment by the Senate. During his office, he was often accused of misusing his power, and he was alleged by the opposition regarding Russia’s connection to the U.S. election in 2016.
The violence at Capitol Hill is regarded as the most infamous incident in the history of the U.S. The U.S. Capitol was attacked by a violent and heavily armed crowd of outgoing President Donald Trump’s supporters on January 6, 2021, during a congressional meeting to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. The Capitol Police officers were vastly outnumbered by the rioters, who broke windows and vandalized offices. Many of them had disturbingly violent intentions towards Vice President Mike Pence and members of Congress for their refusal to give in to Trump’s attempts to rig the election in his favor. Meanwhile, lawmakers and staff were herded into secure locations or barricaded behind doors. One Capitol Police officer was among the five fatalities when he was attacked by rioters. The attempted takeover did not happen on its own. The federal capital invasion aimed to overturn the election results, which later in 2021, the select committee tried to announce its final report of findings after voting earlier in the week to refer former President Donald Trump and important allies to the Justice Department for criminal offenses related to their efforts to rig the 2020 election.
The committee stated in its executive summary that Trump “purposely disseminated false allegations of fraud related to the 2020 presidential election” and “provoked his supporters to violence on January 6th.” The criminal charges suggested for Trump are inciting an insurrection, conspiring to defraud the United States, obstructing an official proceeding, and conspiring to make a false statement. Additionally, the committee suggested that Trump be prohibited from holding any office in the future under the 14th Amendment. These allegations would become a lifeboat for the Democrats to hide their administration’s failure after Joe Biden took charge of the White House, which did not last long until the eruption of war in Ukraine and currently in Israel, giving a chance to Republicans. However, Trump is aiming for his second term, and the major agendas for his terms look vengeful.
He has made threats to use the presidency’s authority to subdue his political rivals, including President Biden and the Biden family. Trump regularly uses derogatory language to refer to his opponents personally, calling them “thugs, horrible people, fascists, Marxists, sick people,” and “vermin.” He has also called himself a tariff man, vowing to apply an import tariff of around 10 percent, which can hamper the trade creation done by the Biden administration and would disrupt tranquility in the Indo-Pacific region. There are worries that under Trump, the U.S. may leave agreements like COP28 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address climate change-related issues.
In nations such as Mexico, immigration is another issue of worry. Trump has vowed to apprehend millions of “illegal aliens” and “close the border.” Looking back at his first term, most of the company CEOs and the business community are worried Trump’s policies will impact global trade and the economy. In his first term from 2017 to 2021, he withdrew from major trade pacts and imposed a wide range of tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. This led to reciprocal measures by China and triggered a major trade war between the two biggest economies. There is a chance of Russia and China taking a big leap in global affairs if Trump succeeds in coming back for the second term, which would mean that he would pull off NATO, leaving Ukraine all alone. Considering the previous relations with Israel, Trump in 2018 recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, which forecasts the pro-Israel motive that could help Israel strengthen itself if Trump returns to power.
Relation with India
Presidents of both the Democratic and Republican parties have endorsed India. Trump became friendly with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and even went to a sizable gathering in Gujarat that was held in his honor. Given that Trump is unlikely to reduce the U.S.-China competition, India might continue to gain from the tension in Sino-American relations. After perhaps winning the parliamentary election this year for the third time in a row, Modi is probably in a much better position. Still, Trump’s harsh and constrictive trade and economic sanctions may provide a challenge for the Indian leadership. With $191 billion in bilateral trade, the U.S. remained India’s top trading partner in 2022. India might need to seek out robust commercial connections with Europe and Southeast Asia. India will have to face the fallout of a possible increase in global risks and threats to global cooperation in different areas. In terms of bilateral relations, the Indian policy establishment has dealt with the Trump administration in the past, and a recalibration should not be difficult. Though Mr. Trump revived the Quad, his administration also imposed higher tariffs and scrapped privileges on Indian imports under the Generalized System of Preferences.
Written by – Abhishek Sinha
Edited by – Kushi Mayur